UNDER CONSTRUCTION - WEBSITE DALAM PERBAIKAN - TERIMA KASIH ATAS KUNJUNGAN ANDA

Forex adalah Bisnis yang mengandung RESIKO SANGAT TINGGI, tidak seorangpun yang mampu mengendalikan pergerakan Forex ini "...harga bergerak secara acak tidak akan menjamin seseorang bisa profit secara terus menerus karena Forex adalah PERMAINAN PSIKOLOGI" kata Bill William yang terkenal dengan Chaos Teory-nya.

TRADING ADALAH BISNIS PALING JUJUR, Bisnis mandiri terlepas dari kekurangan dan kelebihannya

Trading Forex di Indonesia masih menjadi bisnis negatif bagi sebagian kalangan masyarakat kita, cap negatif itu masih menghantui dan memberikan sinyal untuk segera meningalkan bisnis ini. Ada Apa Dengan Trading ?

STRATEGY TRADING : INDICATORS VS NAKED TRADING

Dalam melakukan transaksi Forex apa yang sebaiknya kita pakai sebagai acuan dalam trading ? Amati Candlestick anda satu persatu, karena setiap perpindahan candlestick adalah signal buat kita.

Surat Keputusan (SK) No.75/BAPPEBTI/Per/12/2009 tentang Pialang Asing (PMA) di Indonesia.

PT Bursa Komoditi dan Derivatif Indonesia (BKDI) SEGERA bekerja sama dengan Pialang Berjangka Luar Negeri untuk dapat langsung bertransaksi di Bursa Komoditas kedua di Indonesia ini. Pialang Luar Negeri dapat langsung bertransaksi di Bursa Tanah Air TANPA HARUS memiliki Kantor Perwakilan di Indonesia.

TIPS TRADING : NASEHAT DARI MASTER FOREX DUNIA

“Trading itu tidak sulit. Apa yang sulit adalah disiplin dan komitmen yang diperlukan dalam aktivitas trading" - Michael Miligan. “Tidak ada alasan untuk tawar-menawar lebih delapan poin. Segera saja lakukan pembelian. Begitu juga ketika turun, jika anda berpikir harga akan turun, segera saja lakukan penjualan.” - David Ryan

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Saturday, 6 November 2010

Trading the Nonfarm Payrolls Release

by : Thomas Long, Course Instructor

However, more often than not, new traders are not the one’s profiting but rather losing. The main reason is slippage, which is when your order is filled away from the price you wanted. The reason for slippage is simple, big traders stay away from these events and new traders all try to do the same thing at the same time. If the release is bullish for the EUR/USD, everybody wants to buy at the same time. However, most find that there is nobody willing to sell to them at their price. But eventually your order is filled, but at the seller’s price. Soon you find the market moving against you and you exit to keep your losses from getting too big. But what about those who were selling to you? As the market continues to fall, you start to wonder about these traders who sold to you and the fact that they are now making money. What did they do differently?

These traders were playing the reversal and taking advantage of the fact that the first move after a release is often based on emotions and wrong. Here is a 5-minute chart and an example of a reversal after a release of the Nonfarm Payrolls. We can see that just before the release, the EUR/USD was trading at 1.4892. After the release, the market started to rally up to just above the 1.4950 level. The market then started to reverse and traders who were playing the reverse sold at the price the market was trading just before the release. The assumption here is that all traders who bought after the release are now in a losing trade and are selling to get out. So these new traders sell at 1.4892 to get in and use a 50 pip stop with a 100 pip limit order to take profit, which is what we recommend in our DailyFX Courses. 

This is our 1:2 risk:reward ratio and allows us to be profitable if only winning 34% of these setups. The market soon moved down 100 pips from the 1.4892 entry and rewarded those who were patient and reacted to the market environment rather than the emotional first response to the release. These reversal traders will also use the EUR/USD as much as possible in these situations because of the increased volume and better fills. But you don’t have to be first to get into the trade to be right, you just have to be patient and react to the market and not the news release. The EUR/USD doesn’t act like this on every release, but it does frequently enough to make this a valuable strategy.


DailyFX/Media Pontianak



Friday, 5 November 2010

Abu Merapi Sampai di Puncak Bogor

Abu vulkanik Merapi mulai masuki kawasan Puncak, Bogor, Jawa Barat. Abu tipis ini turun disertai hujan gerimis yang mengguyur kawasan itu.

"Abunya terlihat di kaca mobil saya, " kata Doni Suryantoro, salah seorang pengendara mobil kepada detikcom, Jumat (5/11/2010).

Doni menjelaskan, titik-titik abu tersebut mulai terlihat saat memasuki kawasan Puncak Pass. Namun abu tersebut belum mengganggu jarak pandang.

"Saya naik mobil dari Cianjur menuju Puncak. Sedangkan abunya mulai terlihat di Puncak Pass," katanya.

Doni menjelaskan, hujan abu di Bogor tersebut belum membahayakan. "Masih tipis, jadi tidak berbahaya," katanya. Abu juga dilaporkan telah terlihat di Sukabumi, ratusan km dari Merapi.
(nal/nrl) 

DetikNews

Thursday, 4 November 2010

Gencatan senjata perang kurs ala G-20

Para menteri keuangan dan gubernur bank sentral kelompok G-20 sepakat melakukan "genjatan senjata" atas perang kurs dalam pertemuan yang digelar di Gyeongju, Korea Selatan pada 23-24 Oktober.

"Kami berjanji meredakan ketegangan kurs dengan menghindari devaluasi [menurunan nilai] mata uang, menjaga volatilitas kurs tidak terlalu besar, dan melindungi negara berkembang dari dampak arus modal fluktuatif," tulis komunike G-20 yang dirilis pada situs resmi forum kerjasama multilateral itu.

Untuk mendukung keberhasilan genjatan senjata ini, G-20 menugaskan International Monetary Fund (IMF) mengawasi konsistensi kebijakan fiskal, moneter, sektor keuangan, struktural, dan nilai tukar negara anggota pascagencatan senjata.

Tampaknya, Menteri Ekonomi Jerman Rainer Bruederle cukup berperan sebagai penengah guna menghasilkan kesepakatan ini. Dia meminta China melepas yuan ke pasar dan Federal Reserve (The Fed) harus mendengar kritik G-20 atas sikap moneternya.

Selebihnya, gencatan senjata itu merupakan buah dari kesadaran perwakilan 19 negara ditambah Uni Eropa akan bahaya perang kurs bagi masa depan perekonomian global. Meskipun sudah merambah ke sejumlah negara, perang kurs awalnya dipicu oleh China dan Amerika Serikat.

Bank Indonesia (BI), sebagai satu-satunya bank sentral di Asia Tenggara dari anggota G-20 ikut menyanggupi janji ini. Deputi Gubernur BI Halim Alamsyah mengatakan akan berkonsolidasi dengan bank sentral di Asia melalui forum bank sentral. (Bisnis, Senin 25 Oktober)

Dia mengatakan perang kurs, istilah yang disampaikan Menkeu Brasil Guido Mantega pada 27 September 2010, tidak dapat diselesaikan sendiri. Perang mata uang sama saja dengan perang tarif pada tahun 1930-1940-an yang dapat merusak merusak pasar dan perdagangan.

Meski ada kesadaran atas bahaya perang kurs, sejumlah kalangan masih pesimistis mengenai realisasi gencatan senjata di G-20 itu. Oh Suk Tae, ekonom SC First Bank Korea Ltd di Seoul, seperti dikutip Bloomberg, dia mengatakan tidak yakin apakah perang kurs berakhir.

Setidaknya ada 2 alasan kuat yang memunculkan keraguan atas pelaksanaan janji ini.

Pertama, G-20 tidak dapat memberlakukan sanksi tegas bagi pelanggar kesepakatan. Tidak berlebihan rasanya jika Martin P.H. Panggabean, Ekonom Independen Kelompok Studi QuantaPrima, mengibaratkan G-20 seperti lapo tuak di Tanah Batak. (Bisnis, Senin, 28 Juni)

Martin mengatakan G-20 bukan institusi resmi dan tidak demokratis, tidak ada voting, dan tidak transparan karena banyak hal diselesaikan di belakang layar, semua peserta datang dengan masalah dan kepentingan masing-masing.

Kedua, tidak semua negara yang dituding memicu peran kurs mengaku bersalah. Sampai saat ini, China masih membantah tudingan mempertahankan yuan undervalue (di bawah nilai sebenarnya) untuk mendorong ekspor. Artinya, negara yang dinilai sebagai pemicu perang tak rela mengibarkan bendera putih.

Wakil Menteri Perdagangan China Zhong Shan di sela-sela Sidang Tahunan IMF bulan ini mengatakan profit margin atas ekspor China di bawah 2%, dan sebagian besar keuntungan eksportir dari peningkatan inovasi dan memangkas biaya.

Negara itu membiarkan yuan menguat 21% terhadap dolar AS dari 2005 sampai 2008, sewaktu mengadopsi sistem mata uang mengambang, tetapi yuan dipertahankan hampir tidak bergerak terhadap dolar AS guna membantu eksportir dari krisis global.

"Air tidak dapat mendidih dengan suku 99 derajat Celsius, tetapi banyak eksportir kami yang akan bangkrut jika yuan dinaikkan lebih dari 1 derajat," jelasnya.

Menjelang pertemuan dengan Perdana Menteri China Wen Jiabao di sela-sela Sidang Umum PBB pada bulan lalu, Presiden AS Barack Obama mengatakan nilai tukar yuan lebih rendah dari kondisi pasar yang sebenarnya sehingga memberi China keuntungan dagang.

Wen langsung membantah dan menuding AS tidak adil karena mendapat keuntungan dari penerbitan dolar AS dan obligasi secara besar-besaran. Data Bank for International Settlements menyebutkan perdagangan mata uang per hari sekitar US$4 triliun, di mana sekitar 80% melibatkan dolar AS.

Lain lagi, dengan Asia. Kawasan ini mengaku derasnya arus modal masuk memperkuat nilai tukar lokal, sehingga harus diturunkan, jika tidak mengancam kelangsungan ekspor.

Tidak adanya pengakuan atas prilaku yang memicu perang kurs memunculkan kecurigaan atas kebijakan ekonomi.

Lihat saja, kebijakan bank sentral China (People\'s Bank of China/PBOC) menaikkan suku bunga pinjaman dan simpanan pertama sejak 2007 sebesar 0,25% pada pekan lalu, tidak serta merta disambut positif oleh pasar dan kalangan ekonom.

Kebijakan itu seharusnya dapat memperkuat yuan, sehingga mengurangi perang kurs. Namun, tidak demikian dikatakan Thomas R. Rumbaugh, Division Chief IMF untuk Asia Pasifik yang juga mantan Mission Chief IMF untuk China.

Tambah amunisi
Rumbaugh malah menilai China memperkuat kemampuan menghadapi perang kurs, di mana dengan suku bunga tinggi, berarti kalangan investor dapat menghasilkan laba yang lebih besar lagi di negara itu, sehingga mendorong aliran masuk modal (capital inflow) dan meningkatkan cadangan devisa.

Cadangan devisa merupakan amunisi terbaik mengintervensi nilai tukar. Artinya, China mengantisipasi ledakan perang kurs.

Jika proyeksi ini benar, bukankah ini juga menjadi salah satu kepatuhan atas solusi yang dianjurkan dari Sidang Tahunan IMF dan Bank Dunia di Washington pada 8-10 Oktober.

Dalam pertemuan itu, Jose Vinals, Direktur Departemen Moneter dan Pasar Modal IMF mengatakan cara terbaik berlindung dari konsekuensi perubahan kurs valuta asing atas neraca keuangan adalah memiliki buffer kuat untuk mengakomodasi setiap perubahan.

Tidak cukup sampai di sini. AS juga masih memiliki amunisi menghadapi perang kurs. Salah satunya, RUU Tentang Reformasi Nilai Tukar Mendorong Perdagangan Adil yang dibahas Kongres AS pada saat ini.

Jelas-jelas RUU itu ditujukan untuk sanksi atas yuan melalui pembentukan tarif khusus jika mata uang China itu di nilai undervalue.

Gencatan senjata baru saja terjadi, para menteri keuangan dan pemimpin bank sentral anggota G-20 mungkin saja baru tiba di negara dan sudah disibukkan dengan urusan domestik.

Tidak ada yang dapat memastikan kepatuhan anggota G-20 atas kesepakatan itu, tetapi dapat dipastikan China akan melakukan pembalasan jika Obama menandatangani RUU nilai tukar. Semoga ini tidak memicu perang yang lebih parah. (ESU)

sumber : Bisnis.com

Wednesday, 3 November 2010

Trading is a Business

by  : Kerry Johnston

Many investors lose their money and this is mainly because they are not prepared to put the time into their trading activities. Trading and investing is like any other business, what you get out of it is relative to what you put into it. In other businesses you find a market, you learn a skill, and then develop that skill until it is better than other people in the same business. Trading is the same - it is a business - and if you want to be one of the financially secure you will have to work at it. In conventional business you have to be focused, disciplined, committed, hard working, forceful, and in control. To be successful in your trading business you can't be forceful or control the market, all you can do is identify what is happening and go with it to profit.

You can't rely on tips or one lucky trade to secure your future; you have to continuously work at it until you have developed a trading strategy. Once you have a strategy that works for you don't keep messing around with it. I have read in other articles that you should keep searching for different indicators and systems to improve your trading. Successful traders know the main part of their trading business is the development of their trading skills not continually looking for the 'Holy Grail'. When you have a set of trading rules that suit you, and the skills to implement them, you take the stress and anxiety out of trading and it will become enjoyable. Then you can create a dynamic business that will help secure your financial future.

Investing or Trading is a Probability Game

Investing is a probability game and nothing is certain. It doesn't matter how much supporting information you have for your trading decision, it is still just a probability. If it was possible for absolute certainty of an up move, then there would only be buyers (and no sellers) in the market and no trade could take place. Once you realize this, then it is easier to accept your losing trades without going through the emotions of accepting that the trade was wrong and you must get out of it.

Successful traders know that they have to identify a probable trend direction with an acceptable risk. Once this is determined, they take the trade using sound money management to protect their capital.


Risk management and money management are vital in trading to protect your capital and stop the stress that arises from the uncertain outcome of a trade. If you don't have good money management then this stress will affect your decision making. When you accept that trading is a probability game and you manage your risk, then trading becomes profitable and enjoyable.


Media Pontianak

Tuesday, 2 November 2010

Fed Will Probably Start $500 Billion of Bond Buys, Survey Shows

By Caroline Salas and Alex Tanzi

The Federal Reserve is likely to start a fresh round of unorthodox stimulus tomorrow by announcing a plan to purchase at least $500 billion of long-term securities, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

Policy makers meeting today and tomorrow will restart a program of securities purchases to spur growth, reduce unemployment and increase inflation, said 53 of 56 economists surveyed last week. Twenty-nine estimated the Fed will pledge to buy $500 billion or more, while another seven predicted $50 billion to $100 billion in monthly purchases without a specified total. The remainder said the Fed would buy up to $500 billion or didn’t quantify their forecast.

The varied responses reflect differences among Fed officials over the total amount of purchases needed to bolster the recovery. Policy makers, pursuing unprecedented stimulus, have cut the benchmark rate almost to zero and bought $1.7 trillion in securities without generating growth fast enough to bring down unemployment from near a 26-year high.

“There’s no silver bullet right now,” and central bankers have “very few options left in terms of lowering interest rates,” said John Silvia, chief economist at Wells Fargo Securities LLC in Charlotte, North Carolina. He predicted $500 billion of Treasury and mortgage-backed securities purchases over the next six months.

Shock-and-Awe Plan

Disagreements among policy makers over whether to incrementally expand the balance sheet or stage a so-called shock-and-awe program of big asset purchases has created confusion among investors over the likely size and duration of any new easing, said Ward McCarthy, chief financial economist at Jefferies & Co. in New York.

“There has not been a uniformity of opinion emanating from the multitude of public appearances from Fed officials,” McCarthy said. He predicts the Fed will buy $500 billion of securities over the next six months and was among 13 economists who said the purchases would include mortgage-backed bonds in addition to Treasuries.

New York Fed President William Dudley set expectations at $500 billion in purchases when he said in an Oct. 1 speech that purchases totaling about that amount would add as much stimulus as lowering the Fed’s benchmark rate by 0.5 percentage point to 0.75 percentage point.

Dudley put the $500 billion figure “in there and it sounded like he was trying to move it along in that direction,” said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo- Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in New York, who predicts the Fed will announce up to $500 billion of purchases by March.

Many Variables

Referring to investor expectations of the central bank’s next move, Rupkey said, “It’s a mess and it’s just because there’s too many variables between the amount and the time period.”

St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said Oct. 21 the Fed should buy $100 billion in long-term Treasuries this month and calibrate subsequent purchases based on the course of the economy. Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart said that a pace of $100 billion of purchases a month is “in the range of numbers one might consider.”

Estimates by economists about the duration of a Fed asset purchase program ranged from as short as three months to as long as the end of 2011. Three analysts said the Federal Open Market Committee wouldn’t announce new stimulus.

Favorable Reaction

“It’s highly unlikely that anyone’s going to get all the details right because going into the meeting Fed officials themselves won’t have agreed on all of” them, Jefferies’ McCarthy said. He said he expects the Fed to buy mortgage-backed securities because it would be a positive surprise, and the central bank wants a “favorable market reaction.”

The lack of clarity over the Fed’s plans has played out in the Treasury market, which handed investors a loss of 0.18 percent in October, the first negative monthly return since March, according to index data compiled by Bank of America Merrill Lynch. After falling to 2.38 percent on Oct. 7 from 2.51 percent on Sept. 30, the yield on 10-year Treasuries has since climbed to 2.63 percent as of late yesterday, Bloomberg data show.

Not all Fed officials agree the central bank should start new stimulus measures. Kansas City’s Thomas Hoenig, who has already dissented six straight times, said Oct. 25 that he opposes more easing because it’s “a very dangerous gamble” that may accelerate inflation and create asset-price bubbles. Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher and the Philadelphia Fed’s Charles Plosser have also spoken out since the FOMC’s last meeting against more action by the central bank.

Raise Inflation

Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said several times last month that the central bank needs to take action and should buy securities on a large scale to carry out his preferred strategy of aiming to raise inflation temporarily.

“They’re in uncharted waters here, and no one really knows, we’re all guessing” about the size and duration of the easing program and its ultimate impact, said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Pierpont Securities LLC in Stamford, Connecticut. “I haven’t seen anybody out there who has made a convincing case that this is anything but a trivial boost for the economy.”

The central bank last month asked bond dealers and investors for projections of its asset purchases over the next six months, along with the likely effect on yields. The New York Fed, the branch of the Fed System that implements monetary policy, asked about expectations for the size of the program and the time over which it would be completed, according to a survey obtained by Bloomberg News.

Incremental Tactic

Stanley predicted the Fed will opt for the incremental tactic and announce a program to buy $200 billion of Treasuries by its Jan. 26 meeting.

“They want to preserve flexibility and to have the option of tweaking the pace as they go based on whatever it is that they choose to look at,” Stanley said.

“Clearly the thrust of this is to get long-term rates lower, but when you listen to what they say about it, they don’t even plan to get a lot of juice out of what they want to do,” he said. “What does that do for the economy?”

Dudley, who is also vice chairman of the FOMC, said in the Oct. 1 speech that the central bank would probably need to act to address “unacceptable” job growth and inflation.

The U.S. economy expanded at a 2 percent annual rate in the third quarter and inflation cooled, Commerce Department figures showed Oct. 29 in Washington. The report showed the inflation gauge watched by the Fed rose the least in almost two years as retailers like Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. use discounts to lure shoppers.

Raise Expectations

In addition to a new round of asset purchases, policy makers are also considering efforts to boost public expectations that inflation will rise, according to the minutes of the FOMC’s Sept. 21 meeting.

All but two economists predict the Fed will leave the interest rate on excess reserves unchanged at 0.25 percent. Fifteen analysts, including McCarthy, say the Fed will alter the phrase that its benchmark interest rate will stay near zero for an “extended period,” which was introduced in March 2009.

“They’ve been telling us they’ve been considering a change to the ‘extended period,’ so at some point they’re going to do it and this is as good a time as any,” McCarthy said.

The questions were as follows:

1a. At the FOMC’s Nov. 2-3 meeting, will the committee decide to (choose one):

a) Retain the current policy of keeping a constant level of the Fed’s securities holdings by reinvesting principal payments from agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in longer-term Treasury securities

b) Increase the level of securities holdings through additional asset purchases

Result (56 replies): A, 3; B, 53.

1b. If you answered (b) to the last question, please provide your predictions on the following possible elements of the announcement:

a. The amount of additional purchases announced in billions

of dollars:

b. The length of time for the additional purchases to be

completed:

c. The types of securities to be purchased:

1) Treasuries

2) mortgage-backed securities

3) both Treasuries and MBS

4) other (please elaborate)

Result (53 replies): a) 29 expect $500 billion or more; 7 predicted monthly purchases of $50 billion to $100 billion without specifying a total; 12 predicted up to $500 billion; 5 didn’t specify an amount.

b) 7 predicted monthly purchases with no timeline; 9 predicted up to three months; 17 said between three and six months; 9 said between six months and one year; 5 said through 2011; 6 didn’t specify a pace or timeline.

c) 38 said Treasuries (including Treasury-Inflation Protected Securities); 13 said both Treasuries and MBS (including one that also predicted agency bond purchases); 2 didn’t specify.

2. Will the FOMC statement following the Nov. 2-3 meeting include any changes to the following sentence: “The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period.” Yes or no.

Results (49 replies): Yes, 15; No, 34.

3. Will the Fed decide at the Nov. 2-3 meeting to reduce the 0.25 percent interest rate on excess reserves? Yes or no.

Results (47 replies): Yes, 2; No, 45.

To contact the reporters on this story: Caroline Salas in New York at csalas1@bloomberg.net; Alex Tanzi at atanzi@bloomberg.net

Sources :  Bloomberg

Waspadai Tipu-tipu Kartu Kredit Gaya Baru

by : Herdaru Purnomo - detikFinance

Apakah anda menggunakan Kartu Kredit? Mungkin saat ini anda harus lebih waspada dalam menggunakannya. Pasalnya, walaupun telah menggunakan chip, kini ada modus penipuan baru yang dilakukan oknum tidak bertanggung jawab.

Ketua Tim Mediasi Perbankan Bank Indonesia, Sondang Samosir mengungkapkan modus yang dilakukan cukup canggih.

"Layaknya sebuah customer care sebuah bank, oknum tersebut awalnya meminta nasabah untuk melakukan up-grade limit. Siapa yang tidak mau?," jelas Sondang.

Sondang menyampaikan hal tersebut disela Forum Edukasi Nasabah Kartu Kredit Mandiri di Plaza Bapindo, Jalan Sudirman, Jakarta, Rabu (21/07/2010).

Ia melanjutkan pastinya sebagai nasabah akan tergiur oleh godaan si oknum tersebut yang akan menambah jumlah limit kartu kredit.

"Apalagi misalnya kartu kredit kita dari silver ditingkatkan menjadi gold," katanya.

Kemudian, lanjut Sondang, nasabah yang tertarik menambah limitnya tadi dan meng-upgrade kartunya diminta untuk menyamakan data-data pribadi.

"Biasanya diminta berapa tanggal lahir dan sebagainya," jelas Sondang.

"Nanti, customer bohongan itu mengatakan akan ada sebuah kurir yang akan mengambil kartu kredit lama untuk di tukar," imbuh Sondang.

Menurut Sondang, ketika kurir datang menjemput maka disinilah nasabah akan tertipu karena kartu kredit tersebut selanjutnya akan disalahgunakan.

"Kurir bisa menyalahgunakan kartu kredit dengan sepuasnya sampai limit kartu kredit nasabah itu habis," jelasnya.

Menurutnya, semua modus tersebut sangat tersusun rapih. Sehingga saat ini diperlukan nasabah yang smart. "Intinya jika kartu sudah tidak ingin dipakai atau sebelum mengembalikan kita harus menggunting terlebih dahulu," katanya.

Hal itu dilakukan agar nantinya kartu kredit yang akan diganti tidak lagi bisa dipakai apalagi disalahgunakan.


(dru/qom)

Media Pontianak

Monday, 1 November 2010

Apa Kata Miliarder Soros Soal Harga Emas yang terus Meroket ?

by :Hadi Suprapto

"Harga emas saat ini sudah tidak lagi mencerminkan nilai fundamental riil yang ada"

Harga emas terus melambung tinggi hingga mencetak rekor US$1.300 per ons. Harga ini telah naik tajam bila dibandingkan sepuluh tahun lalu. Bayangkan, pada awal 2010, harga emas baru diperdagangkan US$275.

Kenaikan emas yang sangat signifikan ini, dikhawatirkan sebagai penggelembungan (bubble) yang siap meletus kapan saja. Sehingga harga emas bisa terkoreksi lagi ke harga sebenarnya.

Pengusaha dan mantan pialang paling sukses selama 50 tahun terakhir, George Soros, memperingatkan investor agar tidak terjebak dalam gelembung besar ini. Dia mengatakan kepada investor bahwa investasi emas saat ini sudah jelas tidak lagi aman.

Menurut Soros, penggelembungan harga emas sudah terjadi sejak Februari lalu. Saat itu harga emas telah menyentuh US$1.150 per ons, dan spekulasi ini tidak akan ada akhirnya. "Siapa pun yang melakukan transaksi emas sejak Februari, dia akan rugi besar," katanya, seperti dikutip dari Economic Times, Kamis 30 September 2010.
Namun, Soros Fund Management, hedge fund milik Soros sendiri merupakan salah satu pemain terbesar dalam spekulasi ini. Sahamnya di SPDR Gold Trust telah naik dua kali lipat. Memang, Soros sudah tidak lagi terlibat dalam pengelolaan bisnis, tapi peringatannya soal harga emas ini akan menjadi perhatian.

Pada kenyataannya, Soros hanya ingin memperingatkan bahwa harga emas telah menggelembung tinggi. Harga logam mulai ini sudah tidak lagi mencerminkan nilai fundamental riil yang ada. Investor telah membeli emas yang sudah naik, dengan harapan bisa terus meningkat. Naiknya harga telah menciptakan permintaan bagi mereka sendiri.

Ini adalah investasi yang akhirnya reflektif. Naiknya harga emas telah mendorong investor menambah emas untuk portofolio mereka. (hs)

VivaNews/Media Pontianak